Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 22.457613 24.405434 26.502621 28.938380 31.702016 34.754958 38.402910
2026-01-18 19.189412 21.822275 24.848788 28.623374 33.259457 38.841473 46.186680
2026-01-25 16.961246 19.975980 23.624304 28.446348 34.781064 43.013888 54.869547
2026-02-01 15.360629 18.608992 22.708933 28.399728 36.327549 47.370596 64.700201
2026-02-08 14.080964 17.456885 21.868706 28.252058 37.612528 51.495883 75.131685
2026-02-15 13.040253 16.483200 21.117562 28.068941 38.738507 55.503684 86.367621
2026-02-22 12.172889 15.645146 20.440179 27.865053 39.741212 59.431734 98.537820
2026-03-01 11.480918 14.978922 19.923238 27.807731 40.919724 63.822350 112.934029
2026-03-08 10.881840 14.388607 19.450027 27.740718 42.036873 68.283246 129.031596
2026-03-15 10.589178 14.211956 19.564973 28.605646 44.866384 76.554563 157.266452
2026-03-22 10.057755 13.639771 19.020464 28.307969 45.531691 80.623209 176.934500
2026-03-29 9.634274 13.199448 18.642625 28.244593 46.613156 85.807595 202.439655
2026-04-05 9.297248 12.879242 18.445840 28.504001 48.427636 93.264293 240.364554
2026-04-12 8.888130 12.422449 17.994239 28.261494 49.197876 98.504330 275.061559
2026-04-19 8.532864 12.029088 17.618276 28.118612 50.159796 104.538472 318.425667
2026-04-26 8.227301 11.696533 17.319226 28.087414 51.361485 111.609640 374.083946
2026-05-03 7.928188 11.356970 16.983360 27.948926 52.299065 118.269385 436.579394
2026-05-10 7.646016 11.029520 16.645661 27.771808 53.119491 124.892218 509.361530
2026-05-17 7.381310 10.717017 16.313406 27.572470 53.857052 131.556765 595.130997
2026-05-24 7.156906 10.460233 16.063376 27.516712 54.946632 139.856021 712.448310
2026-05-31 6.946164 10.215923 15.820082 27.451023 56.004242 148.524952 858.874148
2026-06-07 6.875222 10.204946 16.000121 28.303333 59.661054 168.787816 1214.749322
2026-06-14 6.655924 9.927989 15.669818 28.010150 60.116587 176.447163 1455.896198